Good article in the NYTimes outlining the full cast of characters in the financial crisis. A full cast still on the stage...
This is what I call Casino Capitalism and Crapshoot Politics.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
Tea Parties = CAP
Michael Barone's article addresses the nature of the anti-political backlash of the Tea Parties. It's is the same thing I have described as American citizens' political demands for choice, autonomy, and minimal protection from risks they can't control.
The media portrayal of the Tea Party phenomenon is misleading and can only hurt those who dismiss TPs as a fringe movement in the coming elections.
The media portrayal of the Tea Party phenomenon is misleading and can only hurt those who dismiss TPs as a fringe movement in the coming elections.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Let's Get Real.
I love this excerpt from Peggy Noonan's article in the WSJ:
This week's Financial Industry Inquiry Commission hearings were so exciting, such a public service. The testimony of Charles Prince, former CEO of Citigroup, a too-big-to-fail bank that received $45 billion in bailouts and $300 billion in taxpayer guarantees, was riveting. You've seen it on the news, but if you were watching it live on C-Span, the stark power of his brutal candor was breathtaking. This, as you know, is what he said:
"Let's be real. This is what happened the past 10 years. You, for political reasons, both Republicans and Democrats, finagled the mortgage system so that people who make, like, zero dollars a year were given mortgages for $600,000 houses. You got to run around and crow about how under your watch everyone became a homeowner. You shook down the taxpayer and hoped for the best.
"Democrats did it because they thought it would make everyone Democrats: 'Look what I give you!' Republicans did it because they thought it would make everyone Republicans: 'I'm a homeowner, I've got a stake, don't raise my property taxes, get off my lawn!' And Wall Street? We went to town, baby. We bundled the mortgages and sold them to fools, or we held them, called them assets, and made believe everyone would pay their mortgage. As if we cared. We invented financial instruments so complicated no one, even the people who sold them, understood what they were.
"You're finaglers and we're finaglers. I play for dollars, you play for votes. In our own ways we're all thieves. We would be called desperadoes if we weren't so boring, so utterly banal in our soft-jawed, full-jowled selfishness. If there were any justice, we'd be forced to duel, with the peasants of America holding our cloaks. Only we'd both make sure we missed, wouldn't we?"
--------
OK, Charles Prince didn't say that. Just wanted to get your blood going. Mr. Prince would never say something so dramatic and intemperate. I made it up. It wasn't on the news because it didn't happen.
It would be kind of a breath of fresh air though, wouldn't it?
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Alan Greenspan on the Financial Collapse
Have to agree. Greenie gets it only half right. Bubbles thrive on leveraged credit. The Fed can easily dampen excess leverage and also send the right signals to the shadow banking system to reduce moral hazard. We didn't get the "Greenspan Put" from the Easter Bunny.
Alan Greenspan on the Financial Collapse
Posted using ShareThis
Alan Greenspan on the Financial Collapse
Posted using ShareThis
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Debt Crisis = A Failed Policy Paradigm
The financial crisis of 2008 paved the way for the employment crisis of 2009, which has now paved the way for the upcoming public finance crisis of 2010. Most federal, state and municipal budgets are strained to the breaking point while the economy still has not found its footing. Meanwhile our national politics is obsessed with expensive overhauls of environmental policy and healthcare reform. Our latest policy strategy is an attempt to borrow and spend our way to prosperity, ala Japan of the past twenty years.
It’s tempting to point to a few simple causes of these economic misfortunes, such as mortgage subsidies, loose credit standards, or excess financial leverage, but the truth is that we are experiencing the fallout of a failed policy paradigm.
This paradigm was rooted in the past century with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the Employment Act of 1946 and the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Stabilization Act of 1978. It’s a paradigm dependent on many admittedly useful policy tools, including both Keynesian demand stimulus and the Austrian school’s theory of money and credit, the monetarism of Friedman, as well as the supply-siders of the 1980s.
So, in what ways have these approaches failed?
The policy goals are clearly stated: stable GDP growth and full employment. But the economic results have been decidedly mixed: the growth of real incomes laden with an exploding entitlement state, structural budget crises, widening wealth disparities, a catastrophe-prone banking system, and volatile asset markets. We’ve heard the term “systemic risk” bandied about the recent financial crisis, but this report card captures the true risks of the system we’ve created.
Politically and socially, Americans clearly want a society where a growing middle class thrives, opportunity exists for individual success and advancement, and a prosperous elite accepts the responsibilities of power not to exploit the weak and disadvantaged. Instead, our political economy is hollowing out the middle class, creating more dependency among the poor, and fostering a culture of corruption and irresponsibility among the elites . Elsewhere I’ve characterized this current state of affairs as Casino Capitalism and Crapshoot Politics.
Second question: why has our democratic politics failed to deliver? The short answer: Our government is doing too much of what it shouldn’t be doing and not enough of what it should.
Free market economies are very good at producing wealth by harnessing the incentives of market participants. Market prices are valuable information signals that tell everyone how much of each good to produce. Governments, however, no matter how enlightened, cannot attain this efficiency. But, due to the political imperative to “do something” in response to countless demands, they feel compelled to try. Thus the focus on “growing the economy” and “creating jobs.”
Unfortunately, these goals often demand incompatible policies, highlighting the differences between the private and public sectors. Private firms earn profits (i.e., create wealth) by increasing productivity, often by reducing labor costs. However, the public sector follows no profit criteria, so the government increases employment without attention to productivity. Thus, with more public sector jobs we create more employment while producing less. At the same time, the growth of the public sector empowers a politically powerful public union interest in its continued expansion. This is no way for a nation to grow rich.
When we peal away the logic we find the true goal of public sector job creation: political redistribution of the economy’s wealth-creating capacity in order to mitigate the effects of markets. This is not an unworthy societal goal, but our public policies adopt counterproductive means to achieve it.
To be fair, the political problem arises because private markets are agnostic towards the distributional effects of their success. Inequality, poverty, pollution, environmental degradation, the concentration of economic and political power—all these are unfavorable distributional effects of markets that give rise to political demands. The question is over how government should meet these demands.
The 20th century attempt to tax and redistribute wealth has landed the modern welfare state in a cul-de-sac of exploding budgets, rising costs of living, slower economic growth and structural unemployment. We’re robbing Peter to pay Paul and neither – except for a relative handful of bureaucrats and rent-seeking capitalists - is better off for it. This adds up to less opportunity all around. Again, the problem is with our failed paradigm. We need to align our policies with behavioral incentives without surrendering our policy goals to an agnostic market mechanism.
To construct a new paradigm we might do best to return to first principles of what Americans want: freedom, opportunity and justice. In order to enjoy these principles, citizens need to be empowered with choice, autonomy, and protection from unmanageable risks. Only functioning free and competitive markets can provide the necessary resources.
So, what should be the proper role for government?
The maldistribution of resources can be mitigated if citizens participate in the wealth creating process as more than an input labor cost. Public policy should cease deficit spending to promote employment and instead look to creating the necessary environment for private risk-taking, saving, investment, and production. This includes insuring market competition and mitigating the effects of economic risk and uncertainty. Tax and regulatory policies should promote the widespread accumulation, diversification, and access to capital to empower individuals and families with the necessary resources to build wealth and insure themselves against uncertainty. Where private insurance markets are incomplete, there is a role for limited social insurance to fill the gap.
Numerous specific policies flow from this general paradigm shift, for example, we can stop penalizing savings through overly loose credit and onerous tax policies on interest and dividend income. There is no reason not to have a tax-free threshold for capital income that reflects the desired savings level of the median annual income household.
Why have we stuck with a failed policy paradigm? Part of the answer is the Kuhnian nature of scientific revolutions, but the pursuit of power and influence by narrow interests is certainly a determinant factor. Economically and socially, we know where we need to go. Getting there politically is another matter. Our present political leadership (of both parties) certainly is not taking us in that direction.
It’s tempting to point to a few simple causes of these economic misfortunes, such as mortgage subsidies, loose credit standards, or excess financial leverage, but the truth is that we are experiencing the fallout of a failed policy paradigm.
This paradigm was rooted in the past century with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the Employment Act of 1946 and the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Stabilization Act of 1978. It’s a paradigm dependent on many admittedly useful policy tools, including both Keynesian demand stimulus and the Austrian school’s theory of money and credit, the monetarism of Friedman, as well as the supply-siders of the 1980s.
So, in what ways have these approaches failed?
The policy goals are clearly stated: stable GDP growth and full employment. But the economic results have been decidedly mixed: the growth of real incomes laden with an exploding entitlement state, structural budget crises, widening wealth disparities, a catastrophe-prone banking system, and volatile asset markets. We’ve heard the term “systemic risk” bandied about the recent financial crisis, but this report card captures the true risks of the system we’ve created.
Politically and socially, Americans clearly want a society where a growing middle class thrives, opportunity exists for individual success and advancement, and a prosperous elite accepts the responsibilities of power not to exploit the weak and disadvantaged. Instead, our political economy is hollowing out the middle class, creating more dependency among the poor, and fostering a culture of corruption and irresponsibility among the elites . Elsewhere I’ve characterized this current state of affairs as Casino Capitalism and Crapshoot Politics.
Second question: why has our democratic politics failed to deliver? The short answer: Our government is doing too much of what it shouldn’t be doing and not enough of what it should.
Free market economies are very good at producing wealth by harnessing the incentives of market participants. Market prices are valuable information signals that tell everyone how much of each good to produce. Governments, however, no matter how enlightened, cannot attain this efficiency. But, due to the political imperative to “do something” in response to countless demands, they feel compelled to try. Thus the focus on “growing the economy” and “creating jobs.”
Unfortunately, these goals often demand incompatible policies, highlighting the differences between the private and public sectors. Private firms earn profits (i.e., create wealth) by increasing productivity, often by reducing labor costs. However, the public sector follows no profit criteria, so the government increases employment without attention to productivity. Thus, with more public sector jobs we create more employment while producing less. At the same time, the growth of the public sector empowers a politically powerful public union interest in its continued expansion. This is no way for a nation to grow rich.
When we peal away the logic we find the true goal of public sector job creation: political redistribution of the economy’s wealth-creating capacity in order to mitigate the effects of markets. This is not an unworthy societal goal, but our public policies adopt counterproductive means to achieve it.
To be fair, the political problem arises because private markets are agnostic towards the distributional effects of their success. Inequality, poverty, pollution, environmental degradation, the concentration of economic and political power—all these are unfavorable distributional effects of markets that give rise to political demands. The question is over how government should meet these demands.
The 20th century attempt to tax and redistribute wealth has landed the modern welfare state in a cul-de-sac of exploding budgets, rising costs of living, slower economic growth and structural unemployment. We’re robbing Peter to pay Paul and neither – except for a relative handful of bureaucrats and rent-seeking capitalists - is better off for it. This adds up to less opportunity all around. Again, the problem is with our failed paradigm. We need to align our policies with behavioral incentives without surrendering our policy goals to an agnostic market mechanism.
To construct a new paradigm we might do best to return to first principles of what Americans want: freedom, opportunity and justice. In order to enjoy these principles, citizens need to be empowered with choice, autonomy, and protection from unmanageable risks. Only functioning free and competitive markets can provide the necessary resources.
So, what should be the proper role for government?
The maldistribution of resources can be mitigated if citizens participate in the wealth creating process as more than an input labor cost. Public policy should cease deficit spending to promote employment and instead look to creating the necessary environment for private risk-taking, saving, investment, and production. This includes insuring market competition and mitigating the effects of economic risk and uncertainty. Tax and regulatory policies should promote the widespread accumulation, diversification, and access to capital to empower individuals and families with the necessary resources to build wealth and insure themselves against uncertainty. Where private insurance markets are incomplete, there is a role for limited social insurance to fill the gap.
Numerous specific policies flow from this general paradigm shift, for example, we can stop penalizing savings through overly loose credit and onerous tax policies on interest and dividend income. There is no reason not to have a tax-free threshold for capital income that reflects the desired savings level of the median annual income household.
Why have we stuck with a failed policy paradigm? Part of the answer is the Kuhnian nature of scientific revolutions, but the pursuit of power and influence by narrow interests is certainly a determinant factor. Economically and socially, we know where we need to go. Getting there politically is another matter. Our present political leadership (of both parties) certainly is not taking us in that direction.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Return to Red vs. Blue - With a Vengeance
It's remarkable, though not surprising, how quickly Obama and Rahm Emanuel got back on track with Red vs. Blue politics. (I'm not sure they ever left, as the campaign promises of bipartisanship and compromise were pretty hollow.)
As this blog has argued persistently, red and blue politics is rooted in far more than campaign politics. In addition, the two parties and the media thrive off partisan conflict, so the temptation to carry that battle directly to the media was too powerful to resist for the Obama administration. The attack on Fox and talk radio are attempts to diminish the appeal of these media outlets while heightening the divisions between alternative and mainstream media.
Voters should not be fooled by this and my guess is that most independents are not. I also suspect the media see little to gain by moving the battleground away from politics to their home field. If an administration can de-legitimize one network, why not another? This is so much white noise.
As this blog has argued persistently, red and blue politics is rooted in far more than campaign politics. In addition, the two parties and the media thrive off partisan conflict, so the temptation to carry that battle directly to the media was too powerful to resist for the Obama administration. The attack on Fox and talk radio are attempts to diminish the appeal of these media outlets while heightening the divisions between alternative and mainstream media.
Voters should not be fooled by this and my guess is that most independents are not. I also suspect the media see little to gain by moving the battleground away from politics to their home field. If an administration can de-legitimize one network, why not another? This is so much white noise.
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