Voter Sorting

There's a good review of an excellent book on political polarization in the WSJ today. It's a book by Bill Bishop of the Austin-American Statesman called The Big Sort and the analysis is spot on. The red-blue divide in our politics is by county geography and is largely due to sorting behavior and constituent targeting by parties and political campaigns. But the sorting behavior is not driven by ideology, it's mostly driven by innocuous lifestyle choices. The ideology has been deliberately applied as a strategic afterthought by parties and political activists. Thus, if one chooses rural living, there's a high propensity to enjoy hunting as a pastime, be a homeowner or own a small business. But an ideological conflict over gun control or tax policy then pushes this voter towards the Republican party. This is even more true for some of the more divisive issues identified by party strategists. (Note: Morris Fiorina homogenizes most of these differences by analyzing exit polls at the state level.)

The way out of this is for parties, politicians and voters to recognize these real divergences in preferences and focus on policies that bridge the divide. These policies must be built on broader principles that transcend identity politics. The problem is that electoral politics often rewards the divide and conquer strategy, while the media inflates these conflicts. Both Obama and McCain promise to overcome this, but it will take more than a good captain to turn this ship.